Daily Global Macro Morning Note
Futures Slide as Tariff Uncertainty Looms, Markets Brace for a Volatile Week
Quote of the Day:
"Every day is a fresh start—embrace it with optimism and let your actions shape your happiness." - tradetank
Wake-Up Call:
September S&P 500 E-Mini futures are down -0.34% and Nasdaq 100 E-Minis are off -0.53% to kick off the week, as traders digest a wave of tariff threats and brace for a pivotal stretch in global trade negotiations. With the July 9th deadline looming, the mood across markets is tense and risk-off.
🏛️ Tariff Countdown: Trump Turns Up the Heat
President Trump announced that “tariff letters and/or deals” will be delivered to global trading partners starting at noon ET today. New tariff rates could range from 10% to a staggering 70%.
Trump also threatened an additional 10% levy on any nation aligned with BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa), saying, “There will be no exceptions to this policy.”
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent signaled a flurry of activity ahead of the July 9th deadline, with the possibility of three-week extensions for countries still negotiating—otherwise, tariffs hit August 1st.
The White House remains optimistic about a deal with the EU, but the clock is ticking for all parties.
📈 Market Recap: Winners & Losers
Thursday’s Rally: Wall Street finished last week on a high note. Microsoft and Nvidia rose over +1%, Datadog surged +14% (S&P 500 inclusion), Cadence Design Systems +5%, Synopsys +4% (both on China export curbs lifted).
Homebuilders Slump: Lennar dropped -4% and DR Horton -2% as the 10-year Treasury yield spiked, pressuring rate-sensitive sectors.
Pre-Market Movers:
Tesla -6% (political party headlines, Trump backlash fears)
Netflix -0.5% (downgrade)
WNS +12% (Capgemini acquisition)
🏦 Macro Pulse: Jobs, Rates, and the Fed
Labor Market: June nonfarm payrolls rose 147K (beat), average hourly earnings +0.2% m/m, +3.7% y/y (both softer than forecast), unemployment rate fell to 4.1% (beat). ISM services index at 50.8, in line.
Fed Outlook: The strong jobs print “slams the door shut on a July rate cut,” according to market strategists. Atlanta Fed’s Bostic urges patience, citing policy uncertainty. Rate futures now price a 93.6% chance of no change at July’s FOMC.
This Week: Lighter economic calendar—watch for Consumer Credit, Crude Oil Inventories, Initial Jobless Claims, plus Fed minutes and commentary from Waller, Daly, and Musalem.
🌍 Global Markets: Europe Resilient, Asia Mixed
Europe: Euro Stoxx 50 up +0.23%. Financials lead as investors digest upbeat German industrial production (+1.2% m/m) and a jump in Eurozone investor confidence (Sentix at 4.5, 3-year high). Retail sales fell -0.7% m/m, but annual growth (+1.8%) topped expectations.
Asia:
Shanghai Composite barely positive (+0.02%) as trade nerves linger; AI stocks lag, property names rally on new policy support.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 down -0.56% as tariff talks stall and real wages slump (-2.9% y/y in May). Yaskawa Electric plunged -10% after a profit warning. Nikkei Volatility Index up +2.6% to 27.37.
China imposed reciprocal curbs on EU medical device imports, escalating tit-for-tat trade measures.
📰 Key Headlines & Corporate News
U.S. Politics: Trump’s “One Big, Beautiful Bill” signed into law after a narrow House vote. The legislation extends tax cuts, slashes Medicaid and clean-energy credits, and is set to reshape fiscal policy for years.
Trade Diplomacy: EU and U.S. still negotiating as the deadline nears; some nations may get a short extension, but tariffs loom for laggards.
China: Medical device import curbs target EU, property sector gets a policy boost, and Shanghai Pret Composites jumps +10% on strong profit guidance.
Japan: Wage growth struggles, BOJ faces a tough road on policy normalization, and economic outlook remains clouded by trade uncertainty.
🔥 What to Watch This Week
Tariff Announcements: All eyes on Trump’s noon ET deadline and the flurry of deals, extensions, or new tariff threats that could follow.
Fed Minutes & Speakers: Clues on the path for rates as the market digests mixed macro signals.
Macro Data: Consumer Credit, Crude Oil Inventories, Jobless Claims.
Corporate Moves: Tesla, Netflix, WNS, and more on the move in pre-market trading.
⚡ Trader’s Take
Tariff headlines are back in the driver’s seat, and markets are starting the week on the defensive. With volatility elevated, yields rising, and global trade in the balance, traders should stay nimble and expect the unexpected. The next 72 hours could set the tone for the rest of the summer—don’t blink.
Global Macro Theme of the Day:
Trump’s Tariff Thunder: BRICS, Deadlines, and Global Trade Drama 🌎💥
On Monday, President Trump fired off a bold new warning: any country aligning with the "anti-American" policies of the BRICS bloc will face an extra 10% tariff on exports to the United States. 🚨
“Any Country aligning themselves with the Anti-American policies of BRICS, will be charged an ADDITIONAL 10% Tariff. There will be no exceptions to this policy.”
This declaration comes hot on the heels of a BRICS summit where Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa condemned unilateral tariffs and military action against Iran. The global trade chessboard just got a lot more complicated!
Racing Against the July 9 Tariff Deadline ⏰
The Trump administration is under pressure to lock in trade deals before the July 9 deadline, when tariffs are set to snap back to higher levels. Only three trade pacts have been nailed down so far, leaving many partners scrambling.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent expects about 100 countries to face at least a 10% "reciprocal" tariff starting next week.
Trump plans to send out batches of letters to notify countries of their new tariff rates, effective August 1.
Tariffs could range from 10% all the way up to 70%, depending on each country’s stance and negotiations.
Where Do Major Trade Partners Stand? 🌍
Let’s break down the latest moves from key US trade partners:
🇰🇷 South Korea: Last-Minute Lobbying
South Korea is pushing for an extension of the July 9 deadline.
Trade Minister Yeo Han-koo met with US officials, proposing manufacturing partnerships and calling for lower tariffs on cars and steel.
Seoul is hoping for a deal that avoids the full brunt of new tariffs.
🇨🇳 China: Thawing Tensions
The US has eased export restrictions on chip design software and ethane.
Software giants like Synopsys and Cadence can now sell to Chinese customers again.
This signals a cooling of trade tensions after both sides agreed on a framework for a broader deal.
🇻🇳 Vietnam: Deal Done, But With Strings
A new deal means most Vietnamese imports face a 20% tariff—better than the 46% threatened earlier.
Goods suspected of being “transshipped” from China through Vietnam will get hit with a 40% tariff.
Many US goods will enter Vietnam duty-free, but strict rules of origin apply.
🇯🇵 Japan: Tough Talks, Higher Tariffs?
Negotiations have soured, with Trump threatening tariffs of 30–35% or more.
Japan is pushing back, seeking a package deal, but the US is demanding big concessions.
The clock is ticking, and the outcome remains uncertain.
🇪🇺 European Union: Seeking Exemptions
The EU is open to a 10% universal tariff on many exports but wants exemptions for key sectors like pharmaceuticals, alcohol, semiconductors, and aircraft.
Trump has dangled the threat of 50% tariffs if no deal is reached.
Talks are ongoing, with both sides racing the deadline.
🇨🇦 Canada: Digital Tax Dropped, Talks Resume
Canada scrapped its planned digital services tax on US tech giants to get trade talks back on track.
Both sides are aiming for a deal by mid-July, hoping to avoid a tariff showdown.
What’s Next? 🚦
As the July 9 deadline looms, expect a “flurry” of last-minute deals, tense negotiations, and plenty of headlines. For businesses and consumers worldwide, the stakes are sky-high. Will partners blink and cut deals, or brace for a new era of tariffs?🌐🔥
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Macro Trader Setup:
Key Points
S&P 500 (Short): Stop loss triggered (current price 6307.75 > stop 6210.75). Position is closed and size set to 0.
Crude Oil (Short): Stop loss triggered (current price 67.07 > stop 65.69). Position is closed and size set to 0.
Cash Allocation: Increased to 51.0 as both S&P 500 and Crude Oil positions are closed.
Other Positions: US Dollar Index, 10-Year Yield, Gold, and Bitcoin remain open at their current sizes, as all are within their respective risk parameters.
No new entry signals are generated for S&P 500 or Crude Oil; the model remains defensively positioned.
The above table reflects the most current available data as of this morning. The trading positions remain consistent with our previous assessment, with adjustments made to account for the latest price movements.
Remember, tradetank, is your ultimate AI cognitive tool for navigating these thrilling macroeconomic waters. Buckle-Up!!!
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